Jay Cousins
Exploring the Universe of Possibility
What follows is a long reflection on Possibility and Creativity. If you want to cut through to my own explorations, guiding questions and research. Click Here.
The Universe of Possibility exists as both a shared and private space. Some areas are in total darkness. Others explored by pioneers venturing into the infinite.
The Noosphere, the world of human thought, is but one area of the Universe of Possibility, an area that expands it's visibility as we find new terms to describe it. A view limited or expanded by language. But the Possible became real before we had a word for it, or even the words for what is possible. So the the Universe of Possibility is far more vast, than our capabilities to describe or imagine.
The Adjacent Possible describes what has the possibility to enter the world at any given moment.
The Universe of Possibility is infinite, ever expanding. Within it the bubble of the Noosphere grows, and the Adjacent Possible likewise expands and intersects with the Noosphere (often creating either portals of accelerated flow, or blocks depending on how we feel about those possibilities).
As an example of the difference between the 3.
Flight existed as a possibility before it was discovered by birds and insects, who discovered it through evolution by Trial, Error, and Accident. (Incidentally this is still largely the driving element of innovation). See Diagram below from from Antifragile, by NN Taleb highlighting discoveries due to Trial and Error (Penicillin being an excellent example of Accident).
The discovery of flight by Birds and Insects made the idea of flight possible to humans. Flight entered the Noosphere. It became part of human dreams.
However whilst such ideas existed, and were even explored in depth by artists and storytellers, they were not yet a part of the Adjacent Possible. It was not their time to become.
Yet the Possibility of Human Flight, and the Idea of it drove humans to bring the possibility into being. Expanding the Adjacent Possible (through research, experiments and countless failures), in order to bring this idea into reality.
Pictures: Depiction of the Epic of Etana, Da Vinci's flying machines
Impossible is Contextual
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That humans could fly once existed in the realm of impossibility. We once believed the same about traveling to the Moon, or soon to Mars. Possible or not possible is contextual. As technology, knowledge and our collective will shift, so does what is within the reach of human potential. The Adjacent Possible expands, drawn towards us by what we desire, and what we believe to be within the realm of possibility.
I believe that it is possible for Humans to co-exist with the environment and each other in a way that benefits us all. Some sneer and say that this is impossible or wishful thinking. Yet it took billions of years for life to emerge. Thousands of years for us to reach the Moon.
So never ask whether or not something is possible. Instead ask whether or not it is Useful or Desirable?
Note: So frequently technological or scientific determinism seems to take the opposite approach, pursuing what is possible, purely because it can be done with little consideration of Utility or Harm (or to be the first to achieve potential for maximum harm in advance of perceived enemies).
3 Barriers to the Flow of Ideas (and how to increase opportunities for flow)
Note: Sometimes Barriers or Boundaries serve a purpose. The Universe of Possibility is amoral. Sometimes ideas should not flow.
Physical Barriers and Flows
What you create is determined by the skills, tools and materials available to you.
Airplanes were not possible before, fabric, specific methods of timber processing and construction, engines etc. Each of these things required an expansion of the adjacent possible.
Different places in the world have different levels of opportunity with respect to manifesting new ideas. The speed by which a new idea is developed will also be dependent on regional tool limitations and financial resources. eg. if I want to quickly develop new electronic products Shenzhen is probably best location. Wearable technology - Colombo, Sri Lanka. Pottery - Cairo.
On a smaller scale, a lab or space will limit or determine what is produced, based on what is available within the workshop. The German proverb "with a hammer in your hand, every problem looks like a nail" nicely sums up this phrase. If you need a screwdriver and only have a knife on hand, you'll use a knife (perhaps to the detriment of you're hand or the knife). We adapt what's available. We adapt to what's available. We are adapted by what's available.
Physical barriers and flows don't just relate to tools, but also material resources, financial resources and access to markets. If you're working to nurture product innovation in an inequitable trade environment, you are probably tackling the wrong end of the problem.
The ideas I brought to global markets were developed with a pair of scissors in my bedroom. Unique ideas can sometimes be developed with simple tools. Always start with a good understanding of the problem, hold no solution too hard in your head, put the hammer down, the world is your toolbox.
What's physically available, also affects what's intellectually accessible (ie. what you see affects what you think).
Information Barriers and Flows
How you create is determined by the ideas, knowledge and information available to you.
The Wright Brothers built upon a wealth of knowledge passed down from previous experimenters as well as building upon the information generated from their own experiments.
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My first breakthrough with the Orikaso (which I'm proud to say also featured in Doctorow's Walkaway) line of products came when I became aware of the properties of polypropylene (it get's stronger as you fold it). Origami, plus this knowledge, plus physical proximity of paper (see above), led to a product emerging.
Possibilities exist in the gaps between what you know. The more you know, the more curious you are, the more you will discover.
Emotional Barriers and Flows
What you wish to create is determined by your feelings and beliefs.
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If birds didn't exist would man have dreamt of flight? Without the dream of flight, there would be no airplanes.
What we are capable of is determined by what we believe to be possible. The "Overton Window" of Innovation. It is also affected by how we feel about each other and the world around us. Our emotions affect what we choose to create.
If you are afraid of the world and the people in it, you will engineer products to control them, to limit and restrict. If you are in love with the world and the people in it, you will seek to enable and empower them.
On a level closer to home, your ability to provide for your family, will directly affect your ability to take risks.
We exist emotionally fluctuating on this axis of security and opportunity. Pulled in different directions throughout our lives.
These opposing emotional states are a direct product of our evolution. Both states are valid.
If you want people to innovate within your organisation or culture, you must first explore whether they feel secure in doing so.
What is the price of failure vs the reward of success?
For many the cost is simply too high - another generation condemned to poverty. The prospect of a lost job in an insecure market place. It's not simply enough to say you will catch people when they fall. You have to repeatedly show them so they believe it!
Such forces needn't be oppositional. We must consider how we design our ecosystems of innovation to build an Innovation Slingshot, that provides people with a secure foundation from which they can explore new opportunities to increase our collective security going forwards.
For those interested to explore this further please see my Open Letter to Sri Lanka's Start Up Ecosystem.
Everything affects Everything
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Each of the above flows is affected by the others. eg. You're mediated perception of a country (Information) may affect your desire (Emotion) to travel or do business (Material) in another country.
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The above is itself the beginning of an exploration of innovation. A consideration of how we may assist the flow of ideas, and better explore these spaces of possibility. It will remain forever unfinished as finality is itself an illusion and a block to the flow of innovation. Everything should be Delivered in Beta.
Continuously Curious (Questions I carry)
Just as it's useful to carry around a head full of mental models (of which the above is one of many lenses), I carry around a whole bunch of questions, gathering information as I go. These are the areas of the Universe of the Possible I'm most interested to explore (or more likely accidentally discover). These questions will become links in time, as I find the time to write up what has been learned so far.
What is Good?
How do we assist Good Ideas to become Real?
What does an alternative system of currency look like, and how do we bring it into reality?
How would a mobile eco-house work?
How do we maintain thermal comfort in the most sustainable manner?
How do we ensure that our waste provides nutrition rather than harm?
How do we ensure the provision of needs for everyone and everything in an antifragile manner?
How do we address the issue of identity in the 21st Century?
How do we make it easier to do what is good?
How do we increase physical and emotional literacies?
How do we enable and empower others to share their knowledge and gain access to the knowledge they need?
The are largely smaller questions of a larger driving question:
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How do we create a society that nurtures humanity and our supporting environment?
Experiments
Events and Spaces have been larger scale experiments I've conducted.
Ongoing Experiments on instagram
Hexahome
Living in Beta (now I would call it Delta)
Placebo Highs